ORLANDO, FL — Welcome to Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings, the Super Bowl of trade rumors where thousands will be under one circus tent – well, technically a hotel – where everyone and anyone will be subject of speculation.
Agents will spread rumors at the meetings that half the teams in baseball are interested in their client. Teams will spread rumors that they’re interested in other free agents simply to put pressure on the player they really want. And players will spread rumors that they have interest in playing for every team just to drive up the price.
The cold-hearted truth is that there will be less than a handful of trades, mostly small in stature, and no more than one or two high-profile free agents will actually sign before the meetings break up Wednesday after the Rule 5 Draft.
“I think it’s going to be a boring winter meetings,’ one veteran GM said. “I just can’t see much happening after talking to teams this past week.’
There will be a podium and stage set up for press conferences, but the biggest has already been scheduled for Tuesday when the Toronto Blue Jays will introduce their shiny new $210 million man, starter Dylan Cease, who’ll be flanked by agent Scott Boras and the Blue Jays’ beaming front office.
While Blue Jays executives Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins will be on stage, they’ll be asked more about the Blue Jays’ aggressive winter than Cease.
The defending American League champions have dominated the winter by locking down three starters with Cease, Shane Bieber (player option) and Cody Ponce, and are hungry for more with outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Robert Suarez on their radar – giving them perhaps the highest payroll in the league.
There’s no Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani on the market, but Kyle Schwarber, Tucker and Cody Bellinger will be the headliners. If there’s going to be a major splash at the meetings, GMs predict that it will be the signing of Schwarber.
The Blue Jays have made it no secret that they want Tucker, but found it comical that so much was made about Tucker’s visit to their spring facility in Dunedin considering it’s less than a 30-minute drive from Tucker’s home in Tampa.
Tucker, who doesn’t have to be the primary star with Vladimir Guerrero entrenched as the face of the Blue Jays, could be the perfect fit. George Springer’s contract expires in a year and starter Kevin Gausman’s salary also comes off the books. If Tucker signs in Toronto, it would all but officially end Bo Bichette’s tenure north of the border, where he could wind up in Boston.
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The Cincinnati Reds have staged a campaign to attract Schwarber, who’s from nearby Middletown, to anyone who has paid attention. You don’t invite Schwarber, his father, and his youth coach to throw out ceremonial first pitches at the Great American Ballpark during the Phillies’ visit in August simply out of the goodness of your heart. There are other serious suitors like the Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, and of course, the favored Phillies.
“I’d be shocked if Schwarber doesn’t re-sign in Philly,’ one GM said. “[President] Dave Dombrowski knows much he means to that club and won’t let him go.’
Bellinger’s camp is reminding everyone who’ll listen that he’s just 1 ½ years older than Tucker, 28. The Yankees still are the favorites to bring him back, but the Mets are in play, and he’s a fallback plan for teams like the Phillies and Blue Jays.
There will be the annual drama with Pete Alonso and the Mets. While everyone in New York is campaigning for the Mets to re-sign Alonso, and Diaz, too, Mets president David Stearns has never been one to succumb to public pressure. He was ready to let Alonso walk last year, only for no other team to meet Alonso’s asking price. And he isn’t about to shell out $100 million over five years for Diaz after signing Devin Williams to a three-year deal. If Diaz chooses not to return at their price, they’ll be perfectly content to pursue Robert Suarez or even return Clay Holmes to the bullpen.
Third baseman Alex Bregman is back in free agency, too, after opting out of $80 million over two years with the Boston Red Sox. He won’t get the $40 million a year he walked away from, but will have the same teams interested in his services as a year ago: Boston, Detroit and the Chicago Cubs. Yet, the Tigers and Cubs proved they can win without him, while the Cubs found out that rookie Matt Shaw is certainly capable of being an everyday third baseman. If the Cubs sign Bregman, they could shift Shaw to second base.
The Miami Marlins, who could have a grievance filed by the union, have shouted to the world that they plan to spend money, but there have been no actions to back it up. Prized outfielder Kyle Stowers, who could ultimately be the face of the franchise, has told the Marlins he’d love to sign a long-term deal and make his home in Miami, but he still has yet to receive an offer. And no, he has never told the Marlins he’s seeking $100 million to stay. The Marlins have told teams that ace Sandy Alcantara is staying, but starter Edward Cabrera is available.
MLB trade rumors dominate meetings: Skubal and Ketel Marte
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been adamant saying they won’t listen to trade rumors for Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, and pulled off a trade with the Red Sox for offensive help with outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia, but they still have not spent a penny. They’re hanging around in the market for Alonso. But if they really want to be aggressive, they’ve got the pitching depth to trade for Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte.
The hottest trade speculation will center around AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The Detroit Tigers are telling teams to bring their best offer and they’ll at least listen. Still, no one expects him to go, and what team is going to surrender their top prospects for only one season before he hits the free-agent market where he’ll be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history? This isn’t Soto, where the San Diego Padres acquired him and 2 ½ year of control. This is mortgaging your future for 32 starts.
The biggest star who is a realistic candidate to be traded is Ketel Marte. He comes with a relatively modest contract ($92 million) and is under control through 2031. The D-backs however, believe now is the tie to sever ties, and are in desperate need for pitching. The Red Sox, Rays and Tigers have all checked in, with each having the pitching depth to satisfy the D-backs’ needs.
There are plenty of other trade candidates on the market. The Boston Red Sox are shopping Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu to clear an outfield spot. The New York Mets no longer have a need for second baseman Jeff McNeil after acquiring Marcus Semien from the Texas Rangers. The San Diego Padres, desperate to free up money to grab starting pitching, have aggressively shopped infielder Jake Cronenworth. The Mets want to move on from Kodai Senga. The Phillies will give away Nick Castellanos. The A’s should dump starter Luis Severino. The D-backs could trade outfielder Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. The Astros will part with center fielder Jake Myers. The Chicago White Sox took a $20 million gamble in hopes of moving center fielder Luis Robert. The Dodgers are shopping outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.
The Washington Nationals are telling teams to make an offer for starter MacKenzie Gore and shortstop C.J. Abrams, but executives don’t believe either will be traded at the meetings. The Milwaukee Brewers are listening on starter Freddy Peralta, but if they move him, it won’t be unless someone completely panics and makes an offer too strong for the Brewers to ignore.
“I think what makes it tough this winter,’ one GM said, “is that you really don’t have teams rebuilding like in the past. Just about everyone you talk to seems like they’re going for it, which is good for the game.’’
Why, except for the St. Louis Cardinals, there’s not a single team who have a “For Sale’’ sign outside their hotel suite. The Cardinals are shopping everyone from Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado to super utilityman Brendan Donovan to infielder Nolan Gorman to first baseman Willson Contreras.
The free agent starters who’ll attract the most attention are Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Cubs are engaged in serious discussions with Gallen and the Diamondbacks would like to bring back Kelly. Only Imai and Kelly don’t have a qualifying offer attached to them. You can be sure that the Mets and Orioles will land one free agent starter after last year’s disasters. They aren’t about to take the same pitching gamble that led to missing last year’s postseason.
The Dodgers will be thrown into every single rumor because of their massive payroll, and they do have $80 million coming off the books, but the reality is that they won’t be involved in the bidding war for any of the biggest stars. Oh, they’ll dip put their toes in the water for Tucker, Bellinger and Diaz, but they would prefer to grab outfielder Harrison Bader and Suarez. The only way they may consider making an expensive pickup is if they trade Hernandez, who’s owed $26.5 million.
And, of course, there will be plenty of intrigue with Japanese third basemen Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. Murakami is the biggest mystery. He has plenty of power, but lots of holes in his swing, striking out 36.7% of the time. He could be the first position player to command in excess of $100 million coming directly from Japan to the major leagues. He must sign by Dec. 22.
So, be prepared for plenty of talk, a lot of rumors, and an abundance of speculation, but the flurry of deals and signings are expected to happen in the following two weeks before the Christmas holidays.
“That’s the way it always seems to happen,’’ one veteran GM said. “I don’t see that changing this year, either.’’
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