This would have been impossible to imagine two months ago and only slightly less improbable as recently as five weeks ago.
But Colorado is in the USA TODAY Sports projected College Football Playoff bracket as the Big 12 champion after winning four games in a row to climb into a first-place tie in the standings with Brigham Young.
Multiple Big 12 contenders have fallen back. BYU lost on Saturday to Kansas after escaping close calls against Oklahoma State and Utah. Kansas State has dropped two in a row. Iowa State also lost two consecutive games before rebounding to beat Cincinnati.
This unpredictability is contrasted by the Buffaloes’ steady improvement. After dropping 49 points on Utah — the Utes hadn’t allowed more than 27 points in a game heading into Saturday — Colorado is up to 26th nationally in scoring. Defensively, the Buffaloes have held its past four opponents to just 4.5 yards per play.
The Buffaloes can clinch an appearance in the title game by beating Kansas and Oklahoma State or splitting these final two games and getting some help. The most likely matchup would come against the winner of Saturday’s game between BYU and Arizona State.
Colorado is one of two new Power Four champions in this week’s bracket:
Projected College Football Playoff bracket
The other newcomer is Alabama. With games against Oklahoma and Auburn to close out November, the Crimson Tide are the safest bet to reach the SEC championship game. That path became much clearer with Tennessee’s loss to Georgia.
Should there no be major upsets this weekend, the title game will pit the Tide against the winner of Texas and Texas A&M.
In a hypothetical matchup with the Longhorns, the Tide have the edge based on each team’s performance against a common opponent, Georgia. While Alabama topped the Bulldogs early in SEC play, Texas was dominated a home in a 30-15 loss.
Texas still lands in the bracket as an at-large pick, joining two other SEC teams in the Bulldogs and Mississippi. The projected 12-team bracket includes another four Big Ten teams, Notre Dame and winners of the Big 12, ACC (Miami) and Mountain West (Boise State).
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Four teams to watch
Army
Army has a huge game on Saturday against Notre Dame that could shake up the playoff picture in the Group of Five. A win as roughly 17-point underdogs against the Irish would vault the Black Knights ahead of Boise State heading with three games to play: Texas-San Antonio, the American Athletic championship against Tulane and Navy. An unbeaten regular season capped by this run might even put Army ahead of the Big 12 champion and into one of the top four seeds, earning a bye through the opening round.
Arizona State
What Kenny Dillingham has done in his second year at Arizona State has gotten lost in the shuffle in the Big 12 with Colorado’s success. But with two games to play, the Sun Devils are position to play their way into the Big 12 title game. After beating Kansas State, the Sun Devils can move into second place with a win on Saturday against BYU.
Arkansas
Arkansas is going to play a role in determining the playoff field despite being 5-5 heading into Saturday’s game against Louisiana Tech. That’s because the Razorbacks are a useful common opponent to help compare Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. They beat Tennessee, lost to Texas 20-10 but were obliterated by the Rebels in a 63-31 loss. These results could help the committee break the tie between multiple two-loss SEC teams.
Syracuse
Like Arkansas, Syracuse could settle the race in the ACC by beating Miami in the season finale, setting up Clemson and SMU for the conference championship. The Orange would be in the mix themselves if not for a last-second defeat to Stanford back in September and a sloppy 37-31 loss at Boston College earlier this month.