Almost three months have passed since Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, still one of the most stunning results of this season, and each passing week has made two things clear:
One, that the result was an aberration. Notre Dame has won nine games in a row since, all but one by double digits.
And two, that despite playing an easier schedule than most Power Four contenders still in the College Football Playoff picture, the No. 5 Fighting Irish have rightfully earned themselves a place right on the doorstep of a playoff bid heading into Saturday’s regular-season finale against Southern California.
They’ve gotten some help. A top-heavy ACC and major shakeups in the SEC and Big 12 have opened a path for Notre Dame to potentially earn an at-large appearance even with a loss to the Trojans, though that would bring the middling strength of schedule into even sharper focus.
“I always said that’s for you all and everybody else to interpret the message that’s sent,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said of the playoff debate after last Saturday’s 49-14 win against Army.
“There is one goal on Saturdays, and it’s to achieve team glory. The way you prepare gives you the best opportunity to do that. That’s the message that I want our players to understand. We prepare the right way, continue to find ways to elevate and improve, and you’re going to get hopefully a result that we got tonight. I don’t worry about the message it sends everybody else as much as I worry about the message that it sends to this team and our program.”
The stakes are obvious: Win and you’re in. Lose and open yourself up to the possibility of dropping out of the field entirely. What happens against the Trojans will make or break Notre Dame’s season and shape the still-undecided perception of Freeman’s tenure.
“Our guys will understand the challenge that we have ahead of us,” said Freeman.
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Notre Dame’s playoff outlook
Televisions inside Notre Dame’s football facility this week have been playing the 2022 loss to USC on a loop, as a reminder of “what that feeling was a couple years ago,” said wide receiver Beaux Collins.
“All the plays are almost memorized and things like that,” Collins said. “Not letting us forget how big of a game this is.”
That 2022 game — the Irish gave up 436 yards of offense and lost 38-27 — is emblematic of Freeman’s tenure to this point, which has been defined less by wins than a series of painful, often avoidable losses. Northern Illinois is this year’s example. That 2022 season also included hard-to-believe defeats to Marshall and Stanford.
The Irish are touchdown favorites against USC, which sealed bowl eligibility with last week’s win against UCLA. The Trojans have made strides defensively under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn but have been uncharacteristically weak on offense, leading to this month’s quarterback change to former backup Jayden Maiava.
“They’re very talented,” Lynn said of Notre Dame. “Their offensive line is probably going to be the best offensive line we played all year. Both of their backs are very good backs. They have big tight ends. They have speed on the outside.”
Notre Dame and No. 4 Penn State are the only two teams that head into Saturday guaranteed to lock down a playoff berth with a win. No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State are already projected into the field regardless of how the regular season concludes these next two weeks. Teams such as No. 8 Tennessee and No. 10 Indiana are also in good shape, though there are scenarios that could unfold and complicate matters for the Volunteers and Hoosiers.
While a loss to USC would only be Notre Dame’s second, that could open an at-large bid for a second ACC team or a fourth team from the SEC, should No. 13 Alabama beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl or No. 14 South Carolina win the rivalry against No. 12 Clemson.
“Yes, the things that we’ve done in the past that have given us an opportunity to be in this moment where we’re playing for a game that, yep, if we win, we’re in,” Freeman said. “That’s what they say. You win, you’re in.”
A reputation-making moment for Marcus Freeman
The subplot heading into Saturday is Freeman’s chance to change the narrative around his three-year run, which even amid Notre Dame’s torrid nine-game stretch since September continues to be defined by a series of missed opportunities.
“We’re going to have to be at our best on Saturday,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “They’re very, very capable of playing championship-level football. We’ve got to meet that challenge and be ready to go.”
This is not a moment the program has handled well under Freeman. Since he took over, Notre Dame has dropped two games against Ohio State, for example, missing on those chances to deliver a marquee, reputation-building win. The Irish have also struggled away from home, with a 7-4 mark in true regular-season road games.
Losing to the Trojans would amplify the simmering unrest over the program’s inability to get over the hump and back into the playoff. Notre Dame made the national semifinals twice with another New Year’s Six bid in former coach Brian Kelly’s final four seasons.
In addition to likely earning a home game in the opening round of the playoff, a win on Saturday could vault the Irish back into the Bowl Subdivision’s elite upper crust. Once in the playoff, Notre Dame’s performance since September could make this a trendy pick to advance deep into the postseason and potentially capture the program’s first national championship since 1988.
The Irish have outscored their past nine opponents by more than 30 points per game with just one win, against Louisville, decided by single digits.
“If you don’t understand how good this opponent is, you don’t understand how much of a challenge this opponent will bring on Saturday, then the fault lies within yourself,” said Freeman.
“That’s what I’m going to continue to remind our guys. But there’s things that we’ve done intentionally to put our program in this position. So, understand the challenge we have ahead of us on Saturday and continue to put the work in today that gives us a chance to get the outcome we want on Saturday.”