A season that figures to be Tarik Skubal’s last with the Detroit Tigers will begin with a record gulf between the two-time Cy Young Award winner and his team.

Skubal and the Tigers could not come to an agreement before the Jan. 8 deadline for arbitration-eligible players to reach agreement on 2026 salaries. Consequently, both sides exchange salary figures and, should they remain at an impasse, an arbitrator will side with either the player’s number or the team’s after a hearing.

And this impasse is the largest in the history of the arbitration system.

Skubal asked for a record $32 million award, while the Tigers filed at $19 million. While this technically has no effect on whether Skubal remains with Detroit once he hits free agency after this year, it’s certainly a symbolic gap between the game’s most dominant pitcher and a team that so far has gained little traction on signing him to a long-term extension.

Skubal is expected to exceed the record $325 million given a starting pitcher, and his total package could reach $400 million.

So, what now?

Tarik Skubal contract: A monstrous midpoint

To be certain, players that have taken their teams to arbitration have gone on to eventually re-sign with their clubs. While the hearing process can be acrimonius, it’s the sports industry’s epitome of nothing personal – just business.

And should this impasse go to trial, the assigned arbitrator will have just one figure in mind: $25.5 million, the midpoint between Skubal and the Tigers’ asks. Should they rule that Skubal’s august resume is worthy of a salary worth more than that, Skubal is awarded $32 million. Anything less, and he’ll earn the Tigers’ requested $19 million – still a record raise from the $10.1 million he pulled down in 2025.

It is a complex game of chicken between team and agent – in this case, yes, Scott Boras – and one that has ramifications beyond the individual case.

Every winter, a taffy pull of sorts emerges between labor and management, the former to ensure arbitration salaries go up, the latter aiming to suppress salaries and avoid re-setting precedents to pay the most talented players not yet eligible for free agency.

And Skubal’s case is particularly tricky.

Which Price is right?

The Tigers already own the record for largest salary given an arbitration-eligible pitcher: David Price, $19.75 million before the 2015 season. That record has held up an entire decade, surprising given the generally rising boats of player salaries.

That indicates management has at least partially succeeded in its bigger-picture goals. But Price was a unique case.

He was the rare player who qualified for ‘Super Two’ status, meaning he gained an extra year of arbitration eligibility thanks to service time accrued his first two seasons. Additionally, Price won a Cy Young Award, finished runner-up another year, posted a 20-win season and accrued four All-Star appearances before his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Does Skubal match up?

Dominance vs. durability

In arbitration, yes, those honors matter, as do cold, hard numbers. Skubal’s two Cy Youngs and 469 strikeouts the past two seasons – most in the major leagues – will be the battering ram for his case.

Yet a closer examination reveals it won’t be a slam dunk.

Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, limiting that season to 21 starts and delaying his 2023 season, during which he made just 15 starts. Skubal’s raw numbers – games started (134), innings pitched (766 ⅔), strikeouts (889) and wins (54) pale in comparison to Price’s prior to his final arbitration season: 186 starts, 1,221 innings, 1,147 strikeouts, 86 wins.

In the easiest and perhaps laziest comparison, Price had accrued 23.0 wins above replacement, while Skubal’s at 17.9 WAR.

That doesn’t mean he won’t have a case. Price’s was based heavily on the depth of his numbers, while Skubal’s relies on pure dominance. He led the major leagues this past season with a 7.30 strikeout-walk ratio, striking out 11.1 per nine innings while issuing just 1.1 walks. For his career, he’s struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings.

Price never exceeded 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings in a single season, nor did he post a WHIP lower than 1.08; Skubal’s WHIP has hovered below 1.00 each of the past three seasons.

What’s next?

All that will be bandied about in a conference room in Arizona or Florida shortly before or during the earliest days of spring training – unless Skubal and the Tigers come to an agreement before then. Then, the sides will shake hands and go about the business of a third consecutive trip to the playoffs.

After that?

It’s hard to imagine the Tigers anteing up enough for Skubal on the free agent market to stay, not with the biggest-budget Mets, Yankees and Dodgers, among others, lurk not so subtly, all of them notoriously quiet so far this winter. Any notion that the Tigers might trade Skubal have largely cooled, though should they surprisingly fall out of contention by July, that can always be revisited.

Yet the Tigers project to dominate the AL Central, as they did almost all of last season before a late swoon forced them to cling to the league’s final wild-card berth. If this is Skubal’s last ride in Motown – and he seems to be soaking it up, accepting backslaps on the Ford Field sidelines at a December Lions game – it should be a dandy.

Even if it starts under a potentially acrimonious cloud.